China Economic Watch Forum held at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee: Transformation of the mode of economic development on the difficulties and countermeasures, the State Council development research center, vice minister of foreign economic research zhang to the transformation of the pattern of economic development from the perspective of foreign trade development analyses the opportunities and challenges, she thinks, a lot of opportunities for transformation of the pattern of economic development, however, as the global trade protectionism and significantly enhanced global competition in the market, Transforming the development mode of foreign trade faces huge challenges.


Zhang qi believes that there are six opportunities to change the mode of economic development. First, globalization. The financial crisis has not reversed the direction of economic globalization, and it will continue to deepen in the future. This trend is reinforced by a 14.5 per cent increase in global exports last year, the highest global growth rate in nearly 60 years. Second, information technology and low-carbon economy are brewing a new round of technological revolution, the financial crisis has also promoted the adjustment of the global economic structure. The development of emerging industries should adapt to different stages of global development and be promoted jointly by various economies. Historical experience shows that when a new round of technological revolution and innovation comes, only those economies that occupy the commanding heights of emerging industries can lead the future economic development and seize the advantage in the future global competition. Relatively speaking, it is easier for the backward countries to catch up with the advanced countries in the new technological revolution than in the traditional field, but whether it can be achieved depends on whether the policy formulation and countermeasures are in line with the direction of development. Third, the international industrial transfer shows the trend of high-end transfer. Fourth, the collective rise of emerging economies and all-round growth of developing countries. It is fair to say that the rise of emerging economies is an important driving force for the future development of the world, and it has also caused profound changes to the global trade and economic pattern. They have gradually become an important commodity market in the world, and the proportion of China's export market has exceeded 50% last year. Fifth, regional economic integration brings new market opportunities and institutional guarantees. Sixth, domestic policy environment and industrial upgrading have laid a foundation for foreign trade transformation and upgrading.


On the challenges of changing the mode of economic development, Zhang qi pointed out that with the significant increase of global trade protectionism and global market competition, the transformation of the mode of foreign trade development faces great challenges. It is mainly manifested in two aspects: first, big countries take the lead in trade protection. Since the G20 summit in 2008, the leaders of each summit have loudly called for opposing trade protectionism, but in practice, countries have implemented a large number of protective measures. From the first summit to the end of last year, countries have implemented 600 protective measures on projects, more than 60 percent of which were initiated by G20 members. The second is the diversification of global trade protection. In addition to trade remedies, many western countries adopt so-called new trade protection measures such as technological and green trade barriers. However, after the financial crisis, developed countries have adopted more non-traditional means to realize disguised trade protection policies. For example, the reindustrialization of developed countries, on the surface, is a domestic economic restructuring, but in fact, there are policies to encourage export and subsidize domestic enterprises, which are in fact to protect local enterprises. Some ultra-loose monetary policies of western developed countries can also stimulate their own exports and suppress import demand, which is a disguised protection. Other countries protect their companies by setting targets for trade surpluses and deficits. These disguised trade protection measures have had substantial adverse effects on other trading partners, but they are not within the jurisdiction of the WTO global trading system. This is a new trend. In addition, the proportion of anti-dumping investigations against China in the world is rising rapidly, especially in the last two or three years, which has been maintained at a high level. China has entered a period of high incidence of trade frictions.